Policy uncertainty edging further into negative territory ahead of elections, report shows

The North-West University Business School Policy Uncertainty Index veered further into negative territory in the first quarter, at 65.8 index points, compared with the 65.5 index points recorded for the fourth quarter of last year. The PUI is published quarterly. An increase beyond 50 reflects heightened policy uncertainty, while a decline in the PUI means reduced uncertainty. The value of the PUI as a proxy for policy uncertainty is based on tracking changes in policy uncertainty over time. NWU Business School says that, as expected, the uncertainty surrounding South Africa’s upcoming election dynamics and the uncertainties regarding the outcomes in May are now exerting pressure on investors and the markets, contributing to fragile business confidence in the first quarter. The uncertain political landscape has prompted a cautious stance among investors and the markets. The school notes that several factors have combined to raise the level of uncertainty surrounding the 2024 election outcomes.

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